应我校数学科学学院邀请，哈尔滨工程大学的荣鑫淼副教授于2023年4月2日为我校师生讲学。欢迎全校相关教师、博士生、硕士生参加!

报告题目：Recursive Zero-COVID model and quantitation of control efforts of the Omicron epidemic in Jilin province

报告人：荣鑫淼副教授

报告人单位：哈尔滨工程大学

时 间：2023年4月2日（周日），14:00

报告地点：腾讯会议号：755-055-2006

主办单位：重点建设与发展工作处、数学科学学院

荣鑫淼副教授简介：2020年于东北师范大学获得理学博士学位，师从范猛教授。2018-2019年曾公派加拿大约克大学数学与统计学院访，访问朱怀平教授。主要研究方向聚焦：微分方程动力系统理论及其在流行病防控中的应用；数据驱动的人兽共患病建模与仿真研究，在MB，BMB期刊等发表SCI论文十余篇。曾参加国家级及省部级项目多项，现主持国家自然科学基金、黑龙江省自然科学基金联合引导项目、中央高校基本科研业务项目各1项。

报告摘要：Since the beginning of March 2022, the epidemic due to the Omicron variant has developed rapidly in Jilin Province. To figure out the key controlling factors and validate the model to show the success of the Zero-COVID policy in the province, we constructed a Recursive Zero-COVID Model quantifying the strength of the control measures, and defined the control reproduction number as an index for describing the intensity of interventions. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis were employed to estimate and validate the impact of changes in the strength of different measures on the intensity of public health preventions qualitatively and quantitatively. The recursive Zero-COVID model predicted that the dates of elimination of cases at the community level of Changchun and Jilin Cities to be on April 8 and April 17, respectively, which are consistent with the real situation. Our results showed that the strict implementation of control measures and adherence of the public are crucial for controlling the epidemic. It is also essential to strengthen the control intensity even at the final stage to avoid the rebound of the epidemic. In addition, the control reproduction number we defined in the paper is a novel index to measure the intensity of the prevention and control measures of public health.

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