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数学科学学院学术报告--第【201739】号
2017-08-06 11:03   审核人:


应我校数学科学学院邀请,解放军第三军医大学的王开发教授201787日—11日来我校进行短期访问及讲学。欢迎数学科学学院及全校相关教师、博士生、硕士生参加!

报告题目:Simulating the potential role of media coverage and infected bats in the 2014 Ebola outbreak

人:王开发 教授

报告人单位:解放军第三军医大学

间:2017年8月8日(周二)上午10:00-11:00

点:A区8号楼七楼会议室

 

王开发教授简介:解放军第三军医大学数学与生物数学教研室教授、主任。2007年于西南大学生命科学学院获博士学位,2008-2009年在美国亚利桑那州立大学数学系访问。主要从事生物数学与计算医学方面的研究,先后主持国家自然科学基金3项、重庆市自然科学基金2项,在国内外期刊上发表论文60余篇,其中F1000医学收录1篇、SCI收录30余篇,2003年获军队科技进步三等奖1项、2011年获军队优秀专业技术人才三类岗位津贴。现任中国医药数学会常务理事、中国生物数学学会理事、《生物数学学报》常务编委、美国《数学评论》评论员等。


报告摘要:Multiple epidemiological models have been developed to model the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus (EBOV) disease in West Africa in 2014 because the severity of the epidemic is commonly overestimated. A compartmental model that incorporates the media impact and the effect of infected bats was constructed and calibrated using data reported until the end of 2014. The final cumulative number of deaths and confirmed cases were estimated to be 1.0921×10^4 (95% CI 9.7706×10^3–1.2072×10^4) and 1.5193×10^4 (95% CI 1.3593×10^4– 1.6795×10^4), respectively. The epidemic was estimated to end on June 2015, which was similar to the data reported by the World Health Organization. A sensitivity analysis indicated that an increase of either the media impact or the number of infectious bats that are captured daily can increase the cumulative number of confirmed cases/deaths. Of the considered epidemiological parameters, only the media coverage can significantly reduce both the peak time and the value of the cumulative confirmed cases/deaths. Thus, we propose ‘the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths’ as another media mechanism. In conclusion, the media impact contributed to the control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, and infectious bats may be a potential source of the epidemic.

欢迎各位老师同学届时参加!

 

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